Working papers
Heterogeneous Beliefs Recovery (with Julien Hugonnier)
Revise and Resubmit at The Review of Financial Studies
In a standard continuous-time economy with heterogeneous beliefs and constant relative risk aversion, equilibrium prices reveal the cross-sectional distribution of wealth and consumption shares across beliefs. Specifically, we establish a novel recovery theorem showing that the equilibrium paths of the risky asset price and the interest rate determine the evolution of these distributions. Motivated by this finding, we develop an optimization-based method to approximate the implied distribution of consumption shares across beliefs, given discrete time series of prices and interest rates. We confirm the accuracy of this method on simulated data and illustrate the versatility of our approach by providing extensions of our basic recovery theorem that allow for learning and multidimensional beliefs.
Presentations: UCLA Macro Finance Lunch, SFI Research Days 2024, SFI PhD Workshop 2024, HSG PhD seminar, EPFL/UNIL Brown Bag seminar, UNIGE Brown Bag seminar
Examples of recovery in simulated markets. The black curve shows the CDF of the true cross-sectional distribution of beliefs used to generate prices, while the blue curve shows the distribution recovered using our methodology.
Work in progress
Dealer Intermediation in OTC Markets with Private Valuation (with Julien Hugonnier)
(Draft Coming Soon)
We develop a general equilibrium theory of dealer intermediation in over-the-counter (OTC) markets with private investor valuation. Trading occurs through a competitive request-for-quote (RFQ) protocol in which dealers submit random price quotes without observing investor types, and investors optimally decide whether to trade. The framework nests traditional voice trading as the special case in which a single dealer responds to each request. The equilibrium endogenously determines price distributions, investor reservation values and the stationary distribution of asset holdings. Under standard regularity conditions, we prove the existence and uniqueness of a stationary equilibrium that clears the market. We reduce the equilibrium computation to solving a functional equation and establish the convergence of the associated numerical scheme. In equilibrium, quote distributions generate endogenous bid–ask spreads, price dispersion and strictly positive probabilities of trade failure, unlike bargaining based models of OTC markets. This allows us to analyze how dealer competition, investor heterogeneity, supply and search frictions jointly determine liquidity and welfare. The model provides a unified microfoundation for recent empirical findings in RFQ markets and offers a tractable workhorse for studying decentralized markets with private information.
Debt Illiquidity and Capital Structure
(Job Market Paper)
Discussions:
Gülce Opuz. Portfolio Choice with Heterogeneous Risks. 2025. (At 8th Dauphine Finance PhD Workshop.)
Mojtaba Hayati. Scale-Dependent Returns or Dynamics of the Interest Rate?. 2025. (At SFI Research Days 2025.)
Emanuele Luzzi. The Impact of Nonlinearities on Option Portfolios. 2024. (At SFI PhD Workshop 2024.)
Bryan T. Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Mohammad Pourmohammadi, and Fabio Trojani. Universal Portfolio Shrinkage. 2023. (At SFI Research Days 2024.)